A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
